Why did most professional economists – and especially
academic economists – fail to predict the financial meltdown ? Wearing my hats of former chief
economist for World Bank’s Latin American Region, and later for the International
Finance Corporation, I was delighted to read Harold Meyerson’s article (below). He argues, rightly in my experience,
that most economists are trapped in a fantasy universe, in which the laws of
supply and demand ensure that bad things not only won’t happen, but cannot ever
happen. I used to have a bumper sticker on my car in the 1970s: THE REAL WORLD IS A SPECIAL CASE. Even back then,
academic economists were gaining credentials by dint of mathematical “models”
they built, which were drifting toward a Cloud-Cookoo Land of total disconnect
from real-world problems. Luckily for me, I am ungifted in maths and spent my
time working with emerging markets' governments at trying to solve practical
problems, and this saved me from irrelevancy.
A point similar to Myerson’s was made years ago by Professor
David Colander, in a book felicitously entitled “Why Aren’t Economists As Important As
Garbagemen? Essays on the State of Economics”.
Are Colander and Myerson right? I am looking forward to your views.
Article text